【WisunoFX斯瑞 技术图表】本周交易技术分析

本周重点关注

本周需注意的是周四即将公布的欧洲PMI数据。

这些数据将有助于追踪注入的刺激措施是否足够，以及复苏势头是否开始减弱。初步预计，欧洲将出现以下这种情况：制造业PMI为53.2，之后为54.8，而非制造业PMI在46.9之后会更糟——降为42.2（图1）。

（图1）

而克里斯蒂娜·拉加德并没有掩饰对V型经济复苏的预期和疑虑。虽然疫苗的研发效率高于90%，但仍需要时间。欧洲和德国的情况稍好一些，但如果与预测相符，复苏势头将放缓：预计在制造业PMI为58.2后为56，非制造业PMI为49.5后为46.1（图2）。

（图2）

PMI from Europe and US holiday on Thursday.

What you should pay attention to first of all is the outgoing statistics from Europe on PMI. This data will help to more closely track how much of the injected stimulus is enough and whether the momentum of recovery is starting to fade. Preliminarily, this is expected in Europe: the manufacturing PMI is 53.2 after good dynamics to 54.8 and the non-manufacturing PMI is even worse to 42.2 after 46.9 (Fig. 1).

In general, Christine Lagarde did not hide such expectations and doubts about the V-shaped economic recovery. Vaccines have been developed with an efficiency higher than 90%, but this takes time, The situation is somewhat better for the locomotive of Europe, Germany, but here, if it coincides with the forecast, the recovery momentum will slow down: the numbers are expected to be 56 after 58.2 in the manufacturing PMI and 46.1 after 49.5 in the non-manufacturing PMI (Fig. 2).

指数分析

欧洲指数仍维持在3398点上方，或许仅仅是PMI驱动力还不足以实现这一走势（图3）。尽管如果我们评估过关联性，在标普500指数承压的情况下，欧洲指数也将迎来一段糟糕的时期。

（图3）

就技术基准而言，标普500指数低于3588点，具体其区间为3546-3585（图4）。此外，欧元/美元对仍保持着平衡。可能会受PMI数据影响，但数据输出时的反应以及它们与预期值之间的差异值得关注（图5）。

（图4）

（图5）

英国近年来的统计数据非常模糊，预期的PMI数据也比欧洲更糟糕，制造业PMI数值在53.7后降至50.5，非制造业PMI在51.4后降至 43.2（图6）。

（图6）

但英指本身由于空头紧缩，已经跌破5965点。技术关键在6300区域（图7）。英镑继续在1.272-1.333范围内移动，现在接近阻力位（图8）。

（图7）

（图8）

But at the same time, the European index is still holding above 3398, perhaps just the PMI driver is not enough to implement the movement (Fig. 3). Although if we evaluate the correlation relationships, then in the event of pressure on the S&P-500, the European index will also have a bad time.

For a technical benchmark, the S&P-500 is below 3588, and for a more specific picture, the range is 3546-3585 (Figure 4). Also, the same and already familiar balance remains in the euro/dollar pair. Here it is also possible that PMI numbers will produce at least some effect, but it is worth looking at the very reaction at the data output and how much they will differ from the expected values (Fig. 5).

Britain has shown very vague statistics in recent years. We see the expected PMI figures that are also worse than for Europe with a decline to 50.5 after 53.7 for the manufacturing PMI and to 43.2 after 51.4 for the non-manufacturing PMI (Fig. 6).

But the British index itself, apparently due to the short squeeze, which had already sunk below 5965, suddenly surfaced sharply. Technically key in the area of 6300 (Fig. 7). The British pound continued to move within the range 1.272-1.333, now approaching resistance (Figure 8).

原油关注

关于原油，数值固定在41.68以上并再次接近43.31（图10）。

（图10）

As for oil, the instrument showed its strength after fixing above 41.68 and again approaching the retest of resistance at 43.31 (Fig. 10).

分析总结

美国指数低于阻力位，为了提高买家的信心，有必要修正到3585点以上。在上涨之后，欧指还未像英指那般实现销售值。但市场可能会继续依靠廉价资金增长，但问题在于评估风险，并从市场复苏的势头去判断。至于原材料方面，考虑到中国经济复苏较快，仅从通胀和潜力发展的预期来看则更值得关注。

最后，德意志银行公布的数据显示中国经济将在COVID-19之后逐渐恢复。第三季度，中国经济继续复苏，年增长率为4.9%。此外，在欧洲问题持续存在的背景下，中国在全球出口中所占的份额有所增加，基础设施投资出现了4.7%增长。在风险偏好增强和统计数据扎实的背景下，人民币从7.16到6.55呈现出非常好的走强趋势（图11）。

（图11）

To summarize the statistics and the technical picture, the American index is below resistance and for buyers' confidence it is necessary to fix above 3585. After the impulse, the European index has not yet met with sales, like the British one. The market may continue to grow on cheap money, but the question is always in assessing the risks and judging by the fading even momentum in the recovery in the overheated market, the risks relative to the potential are extremely high. As for raw materials, it is more interesting, if only from the point of view of the expectation of a gradual development of inflation and potential, especially in light of the faster recovery of the Chinese economy.

Finally, interesting data was announced by Deutsche Bank, which suggests that China will be from a confident recovery after COVID-19. The Chinese economy continued to recover in the third quarter, with an annualized growth of 4.9%. In addition, the share of China's global exports increased against the backdrop of the ongoing problems in Europe, and investments in infrastructure, which showed a moderate growth of 4.7%, had an effect. Not surprisingly, against the background of increased risk appetite and solid statistics, the Chinese yuan showed a very good strengthening trend from 7.16 to 6.55 (Fig. 11).