【WisunoFX斯瑞 技术图表】本周交易策略提醒

乔·拜登赢得美国大选。

数据和预期最初给了乔·拜登有利的优势，然而，几乎在竞选活动结束时，还并不是那么明显，特朗普获得了申请第二个总统任期的好机会。有一段时间，博彩公司给予任何候选人几乎相等的获胜机会，但一夜之间，胜算发生了巨大变化——结果有利于民主党。尽管官方上说，这一优势在一段时间后才变得明显，但有人利用内幕消息走在前头。整个情况一开始就像一个没有设置止损单的交易员；像一道枯燥的计算题说你需要退出，但还是希望让你等待一会儿，但却突然间得到一切。所以，在特朗普身上，数据已经让拜登获胜，尽这现在将希望寄托于官司让局势有些悬而未决。但参议院仍然属于共和党，将明显限制民主党的权力。

Joe Biden wins US elections.

Dry numbers and expectationsinitially gave an advantage in favor of Joe Biden, however, almost at thefinish of the election campaign, the obviousness was not so obvious, and Trumpgot a good chance to apply for a second presidential term. There was even amoment when bookmakers gave almost equal chances of victory for any candidate,but overnight the odds changed dramatically in favor of the Democrats, althoughofficially the advantage became obvious only after a while, someone was workingahead of the curve with insider information. This whole situation initiallyresembled a trader who did not set a stop loss order: like a dry calculationsays that you need to exit, but hope makes you wait, and suddenly all is notlost. So, with Trump, the numbers have already given the victory to Biden, andthe hope now for the lawsuits still leaves the situation somewhat hanging. Andthe Senate, which remains with the Republicans, will clearly limit the power ofthe Democrats.

一、但从技术上讲，这一消息增加对额外刺激措施和长期低利率的持久希望，而对股指来说也已经足够了。这一价格再次达到标准普尔500指数的绝对最高点。但目前我们不要急于下结论，毕竟目前的市场是做市商的市场：我们要看的是选举时真正的市场反应，以及买家能否捍卫3547关口（图1）。

图一

But technically, this news and thelingering hope of additional stimulus and a prolonged period of low interestrates were enough for the stock index. The price is again at the absolutemaximums for the S&P-500. Of course, one should not rush to conclusions anddo not forget that the current market is a market-maker's market: the reactiontook place at the elections, and now we are looking at the real market reactionand whether buyers can defend the 3547 mark (Fig. 1).

二、不管激励措施的进展如何，基金会的基础和公司报告、新冠病毒的后果以及指数价值明显过热。市场可以在很长一段时间内增长，冲掉所有卖空者的意图。目前约有27%的卖空行为，由于一只股票的正常价值在空头头寸上不超过1-2%，而随后的空头紧缩目前只剩下7%的空头头寸（图2）。

图二

No matter how beautiful everythinggoes with incentives, there remains a weak foundation and company reporting,the consequences of the pandemic and the clearly overheated value of the topcompanies in the index. Of course, the market can grow for a very long time,flushing out all the sellers' attempts to short, as was the case with TSLAshares and this is a very clear and instructive example, where at the momentthere was about 27% on short sales, with a normal value for a stock notexceeding 1-2 % on short positions and the subsequent short-squeeze at themoment left only 7% of short positions (Fig. 2).

三、尽管基本上每年的统计数据仍然让投资者感到悲哀（图3）。但就我个人而言，我总是从潜在风险的角度来评估市场上的任何机会，而且无论选举结果如何，我相信从投资者的角度来看，目前的价格都具有非常高的风险。而从交易者的立场来看，我们总是从下止损单开始，而不去想它是太贵还是太便宜。在这种情况下，基本参数完全不同：风险系统、波动性、工具的运动性质、关键价格。

图三

Although fundamentallystill statistics from year to year remain sad for value investors for thisissuer (Fig. 3). But personally, I always assess any opportunity in the marketin terms of risk to potential, and regardless of the election results, Ibelieve that current prices carry a very high risk from an investor'sperspective. Well, from the position of a trader, we always go from placing astop loss order, without wondering whether it is too expensive or cheap. Inthis case, the fundamental parameters are quite different: the risk system,volatility, the nature of the movement of the instrument, key prices.

一旦选举结果确定性增加，波动率指数就从40下降到25，但与市场平稳增长时期相比，波动率指数仍然很高（图4）。从技术上讲，在交易型基金VXX的背景下出现了一个有趣的反应，当在21.80点重新测试时，上涨的冲动并没有上升，VXX的走弱已经为标准普尔500指数打开了一条更高的通道（图5）。

图四

图五

The volatility index fell from 40 to25 as soon as the election result removed the uncertainty, but the VIX is stillhigh compared to the times of quiet market growth (Fig.4). Technically,there was an interesting reaction against the background of the traded fundVXX, when the upward impulse did not go up on the price retest at 21.80 and theweakening of the VXX already opened the way higher for the S&P-500 (Fig.5).

美元有一种奇怪的反应，例如，对日元，特朗普对美元的新兴机会上升到105以上，但拜登回归的现实已经使美元的价值下降到近103（图6）。

图六

There was a curious reaction to thedollar at the moment. For example, against the Japanese yen, the emergingchances for Trump for the dollar went to strengthen above 105, but the newlyreturned reality behind Biden is already dropping the values of the Americancurrency to almost 103 (Fig. 6).

欧元兑美元汇率也在1.16重新测试，该区间和余额自8月以来一直保持不变。坦率地说，根据欧洲央行行长拉加德的评论，在评价欧洲的统计数据时甚至感觉到，欧洲远没有处于与美国相比的最佳状态，因此，还需要仔细考虑欧元在区间边界内走强的技术新闻（图7）。

图七

The reaction was also followed bythe euro against the dollar at the 1.16 retest, where the range and balancehave already been held since August. Frankly speaking, evaluating thestatistics of Europe and even felt according to the comments of the ECBPresident Lagarde that Europe is far from being in the best shape compared tothe United States, therefore, it is also necessary to carefully consider thetechnical news strengthening of the euro within the range boundaries (Fig. 7).

据统计，本周美国利率和选举的决定预计将比上一周平静。从公布的数据来看，中国对CPI通胀数据的统计数据可能会更加吸引注意力（正如我们已经在美国和欧洲看到的那样）。但仍有一定的通货紧缩时刻，可以使刺激政策螺旋式上升。不过，通胀的细线是可以突破的，截止目前为止，监管者对他们的行动表现也更有信心（图8）。

图八

According to statistics, the currentweek is expected to be quieter than the previous one with decisions on interestrates and elections in the United States. From the published figures, thestatistics from China on CPI inflation figures, which are expected with aslowdown, may be of interest (as we have already seen for the US and Europe).That is, there is still a certain deflationary moment that allows to unwind thestimulus spiral. Of course, the fine line of inflation can be breached, but sofar the regulators are emitting confidence in their actions (Figure 8).

新西兰的利率决定将于周三公布。将维持0.25%的初步记录低比率（图9）。技术上，价格突破0.679点，但仍有一个紧绷的区域向0.694点前进（图10）。

图九

图十

The decision on the interest ratefrom New Zealand will be announced on Wednesday. The preliminary record lowrate of 0.25% will be maintained (Fig. 9). Technically, the price passes 0.679,but a tight zone is still ahead up to 0.694 (Figure 10).

星期三，美国将在退伍军人节期间放假，因此这一天将暂停美国市场和外汇市场的低成交量期。

On Wednesday, the US will be onholiday while Veterans Day, so we will have a break on the American market andlow volume period on FX at this day.

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