斯瑞：本周交易策略提醒

目前市场正在屏息以待美国大选的结果。

周一是总统竞选的最后一天，是说服、雄辩和民粹主义的时候。唐纳德·特朗普甚至不反对在公共场合跳舞，前总统奥巴马在一次公开演讲中也来支持拜登，双方都没有绝对优势，可能性仍然大致相等。我们已经看到市场在这种不确定性的前夜是如何变得紧张的。同样的波动率指数，当市场增长时，甚至不在通常的10-15范围内，甚至不在20-25区域，即最近几个月保持的水平，而波动率指数则越过了这条线，超过了30-35，这清楚地表明了市场的不稳定性（图1）。

（图一）

The market is awaiting the resultsof the US elections.

So, Monday is the last day of thepresidential race, time for persuasion, eloquence and populism. Donald Trump isnot even averse to dancing in public, and ex-President Barack Obama came tosupport Biden at a public speech. The odds remain approximately equal, neitherside has an absolute advantage, and we have already seen how the market getsnervous on the eve of this uncertainty. The same volatility index, which, whenthe market grows, is not even within the usual 10-15, and not even in the 20-25region, the levels that have been held in recent months, and the VIX crossedthe line and went above 30-35, which clearly indicates a market instability(Fig. 1).

同时，无论哪一方在选举中获胜，都可能导致对当前股票价值及其前景的重新估价，回到对下一个时期即将公布的报告的真实数字和预期。很明显，这股政治力量将再次试图刺激经济，敲出一系列措施。但如何协调只是第一个问题，第二个问题是通胀是否会开始出现加速迹象。在目前的经济模式和目前的形势下，通胀正在缓慢的加速，很多专家早在一两年前就已经预期到了升值的原因。鲍威尔在2018年决定未雨绸缪，逐步加息，这是一个明智的决定，它逐渐吹走了市场上明显形成的泡沫。但是，除了对经济造成的严重后果外，还有其他原因介入其中，因此有必要重写计划。在前几天随着大选临近，标普500错失了9月份的收购交易，目前正在测试当地3232点的水平；在全球范围内，我们需关注3210点的价格（图2）。

（图二）

At the same time, a victory in theelections by either side can lead to a revaluation of the current value ofshares and their prospects, returning to real figures and expectations ofupcoming reports of the next period. It is clear that this or that politicalforce will once again try to stimulate the economy, knock out a package ofmeasures, but how the coordination will be held is only the first question, andthe second question is whether inflation will start showing signs ofacceleration. Of course, in the current model of the economy and in the currentsituation, inflation is accelerating at a very slow pace, and many expertsalready expected higher values a year or two ago for a reason, and Powelldecided in 2018 to be proactive and gradually raise interest rates. And it wasa smart decision, gradually blowing away the obviously formed bubble in themarket. But other reasons intervened, in addition to the severe viralconsequences for the economy, and it was necessary to rewrite plans, act todayand be closer to political economy. S&P-500, in turn, over the previousdays, approaching the elections, lost its September acquisitions and is testingthe local level of 3232; globally, we pay attention to the price 3210 (Fig. 2).

有趣的是，货币不相关性也的近年来经常发生。因此，美元兑日元（被视为避险货币）从105.8跌至104.6下方。但现在，围绕104.6这一全球关键价格的争夺战已经恢复，美元显然受到了买家的青睐。在当地，他们几乎在104左右（图3）。

（图三）

It is interesting that in recentyears, currency uncorrelatedness has also often occurred. So, the dollaragainst the Japanese yen, which is considered as a safe-haven currency, beforethat dropped from 105.8 below the key 104.6. But now the struggle for theglobal key price of 104.6 has resumed and the dollar has a clear interest frombuyers. And locally, they almost finished off to 104, which I was guided by(Fig. 3).

此外，黄金作为一种抵御通胀的保护性资产，显然在今年前取得了成效。现在，在市场下跌之后，黄金通常不会贬值。在1911.3的阻力下，但目前仪器在1849-1911.3的范围内（图4）。

（图四）

Also, gold as a protective asset,albeit with a larger one as a protective asset, primarily against inflation,has clearly worked out ahead of the year. Now, following the market decline,the yellow metal has not typically lost its value. At the resistance of 1911.3,but for now the instrument is within the range of 1849-1911.3 (Fig. 4).

让我们再来看看另一种，人们普遍认为的避难货币——瑞士法郎。在这里，我们看到美元得到了低端买家的支持。也就是说，普通的相关性是不同步的，但对法郎持有者来说，看到的是利率差异正负之间的互换（图5）。

（图五）

Let's look at one more, as iscommonly believed, the currency of refuge - the Swiss franc. And here we seethe dollar receiving support from low-end buyers. That is, ordinarycorrelations are out of sync, but what is pleasant for franc holders is thedifference in interest rates and a positive swap (Fig. 5).

欧元兑美元汇率几乎触及1.19区间的上限，欧洲货币面临的压力再次变得明显，这主要是由新关闭的酒吧、餐馆、咖啡馆等紧张局势造成的。总体而言，在一段不确定的时间内，服务业将可能在下一份报告中显示为负数，而企业将需要额外的激励措施（图6）。

（图六）

The euro almost hit theupper limit of the 1.19 range against the dollar, and again the pressure on theEuropean currency became tangible, fundamentally created by the tension of thenewly closed bars, restaurants, cafes, etc. In general, for an indefiniteperiod of time, the service sector in the next reports will show a negativefigure, and business will require additional incentives (Fig. 6).

从今日的基础来看，美国制造业的ISM数据受到关注，预计将达到55.6。现在说这种势头在新的激励措施的预期下已经减弱还为时过早，但在经济缺乏额外动力的情况下，这可能会成为一个问题（图7）。

（图七）

From the foundation for today,attention is behind the ISM figures in the US manufacturing sector, which areexpected at 55.6. It is still too early to say that the momentum has faded inanticipation of the expectation of new incentives, but in the absence of anadditional impetus for the economy, this may become a problem (Fig.7).

但在澳大利亚，预计监管机构将在周二再次采取紧急措施，将利率降至0.1%的历史新低。试想一下，在2008年的峰值时期，澳大利亚的利率是7.25%（图8）。

（图八）

But in Australia it is expected onTuesday that the regulator will again have to take emergency measures and cutthe rate to a record low of 0.1%. Just imagine at its peak in 2008, theAustralian interest rate was 7.25% (Fig.8).

从技术上讲，金价收于0.705以下，这种情况下的波动是可以被预料到的。而在这一天，美国的选举和反应以及即将到来的波动性，也是可以从中预期的（图9）。

（图九）

Technically, the price closes below 0.705 and volatility on such anevent could well be expected, but on this day, the elections in the US and thereaction, along with the incoming volatility, should be expected from there(Fig.9).

考虑到美国大选，周二之后的数据都已经是难以预料的，应该关注美元价格，但这取决于选举结果。不过，值得注意的是，英国将在周四就利率做出决定，预计将保持不变（图10）。从技术上讲，英镑正跌破1.298（图11）。

（图十）

（图十一）

Perhaps there is no point in goingfar on Thursday. Taking into account the elections in the United States,everything beyond Tuesday is already far away, because it is on the electionresults that you should watch the reaction of the dollar price. Butnevertheless, it is worth noting in the working calendar that Britain will makeits decision on the interest rate on Thursday and is expected to be unchanged(Fig.10). Technically, the pound is drifting below 1.298 (Fig.11).

本周将有许多重要数据出炉，预计FRS将对利率做出决定。到目前为止，监管机构坚持其意见，即0.25%符合当前情况。从长期目标的角度来看，无论是货币还是财政在短期基本面压力下将迫使采取主动（图12）。

（图十二）

But that's not all for Thursday andthis week, and the week is very eventful ... A decision on the interest rate isexpected from the FRS. So far, the regulator adheres to the opinion in itscomments that 0.25% corresponds to the current situation. From the point ofview of long-term goals, I agree, but short-term fundamental pressure willforce to take the initiative, either monetary or fiscal (Fig. 12).

周五，交易员将把注意力转向即将公布的失业数据。失业率预计为7.7%，比之前的7.9%要好，但除了新一波的大流行，一切也离理想的2019年2020年初相去甚远（图13）。

（图十三）

On Friday, traders will turn theirattention to the coming unemployment figures. The unemployment rate is expectedto be 7.7%, which is better than the previous value of 7.9%, but everything isalso far from the ideal 2019-early 2020, in addition to a new wave of thepandemic (Fig. 13).

分析师简介